India and China grow 55% of the world's rice. India ships two-fifths of global exports, while China eats nearly all of its own.
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A weak dollar, La Niña risk and geopolitics are driving a broad commodity rally, with cotton and corn the exceptions.
A Canada-China deal cutting duties on canola, peas and seafood could let Canadian exporters raise prices and lift pulses.
New farm tariffs from the EU, US and Mexico aimed at Asian exporters, India above all, are straining the WTO system.
Indian marine exports rose 16% in H1 FY2025 despite US tariffs, as exporters sent 57% of their shrimp to other markets.
With the July 9 tariff deadline near, Vietnam secured a 20% US rate while India and the EU are still negotiating.
Talks in Geneva moved US-China trade forward, and a deal could reopen China's 105 mt soybean market to US farmers.
US soybean and corn farmers are losing about $100 an acre as China's tariffs shut their biggest market.
US tariffs of 145% and China's 125% reply have stalled US soybean and corn sales to China, shifting trade to Brazil and Argentina.
Sunflower oil is up 18% in India this year while other staples held steady. More than half of the country's cooking oil is imported.
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